Projecting political outcome for the 2016 General Election

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According to a variety of projections, data from previous elections, and existing trends it is safe to assert the 2016 General Election will feature the following:

  • Total voting age population: 240,000,000
  • Anticipated voters participating: 132,000,000 or 55% of available voting age citizens
  • Anticipated votes by party: 48% Republican, 52% Democratic

Thus in any discussion about favorite candidates one comes to a few realizations:

  • Most candidates as of Jan. 2016 have at most 40% of their respective party’s approval, thus 132 million voters, half of which are from the opposite party, and thus 66,000,000 times 40% equals 26,400,000 voters prefer a specific candidate from each party. Converting this to representational numbers, that means 8.5% of the population would choose that candidate, 91.5% wanted someone else.
  • Racially white voters split 60/40 Republican, Latinos split 70/30 Democratic, Blacks split 90/10 Democratic. As a percentage of the total population whites are 77.4%, Hispanic are 17.4%, and Blacks are 13.2%
  • Combining all numbers and percentages yields the following electoral college estimate: Democrats at 212, Republicans at 191, with 135 to be decided. Two hundred seventy are required to win.
  • Toss up States include: Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida. In the 2008 General Election the Democratic candidate won all these States, and in 2012 the Democratic candidate won all but North Carolina.
    • And thus, the winner of the 2016 General Election for President will be the Democratic candidate.

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