Numbers

Some More Wide-Ranging US Numbers
…March 28th, 2020….

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a) approximately 20M – 28M tests will be required to identify all those who are and will become seriously infected in the US
b) possible range of total US infections from 40M – 70M in the 2020 Spring cycle
c) overall percentage who will have only mild or moderate cases in the US is 80%
d) estimated range for overall positive tested who will require hospitalization is 20% – 30% with the elderly at an approximately 50% rate declining with younger cohorts.
e) approximately 30% of those hospitalized will need ventilators
f) about 50% of those placed on ventilators will die
g) the overall rate of fatalities is approximately 2.5% of infected individuals
h) extrapolations from March 2020 data shows the rate of confirmed cases doubles every three days
i) the US March 27 data shows 104,661 cases and 1,706 deaths for a 1.6% death rate
j) the current estimated number of patients hospitalized is about 18 – 19,000
k) population density by itself is not directly related to the number of confirmed infections
l) temperate zone locations have a 2- 12 times greater per capita infection rate than either the polar or tropical zones.

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