The X Factor

by Richard @ Flexible Reality – Mar 12th, 2020

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We are heading toward an “X” factor regarding COVID-19…where the number of cases is increasing logarithmically and the prevalence of cold-weather virus infections decreasing logarithmically due to the warming weather.

We can see the effect in the cancellation of large group meetings recently announced which are scheduled to last for only a few weeks. So while the trajectory of the two elements is fairly certain we do not know where the center line will be. Will the log reach a plateau state early in April when the traditional flu season ends, or hang around until mid-May?

We could get “lucky” and begin to experience a slowing of infections over time, or otherwise have our systems become overwhelmed by existing cases that cannot be ameliorated by changes in the weather.

What has become increasingly clear is the responses thus far from the political elements in this Administration have been woefully inadequate, and dangerous. Other countries like South Korea, Japan, China, and Singapore have tested several orders of magnitude more of their citizens than the US so it’s obvious they detected more cases per capita than we have; but it’s also a warning that our trajectory of prevalence could balloon due to lack of testing, preparedness, tracking, and triage.

This is not a time for burying our heads in the sand and hoping for the best. Equally worrisome is the juvenile and craven statements and actions taken by the POTUS, who on Mar 11th gave an Oval Office address in which he directly contradicted almost everything he has said for the past few weeks about COVID-19. On Mar 12th the MSM reported trump was considering implementing a version of martial law nationally. Given his autocratic operational mode this is beyond troubling.

In raw numbers, as of Wed Mar 11th, the global death rate/infection rate was 4,630 / 126,135 or 3.7%, while the U.S. number was 38 / 1,311  or 2.9%

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